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An artisanal boat used for shore seine fishing cuts across shore waves early in the morning on a monsoon day. Fishers brave these dangerous sea conditions when they expect a good catch. (Still from the documentary Crashing Waves)

A fisherman on a kattumaram raft, made of logs tied together, deftly negotiating shore waves on a monsoon day. Most fishers now prefer motorised fibreglass boats. (Still from the documentary Crashing Waves)

New research from the ºÚÁÏÍø and  (CUSAT) in India has found an increasing trend in weather systems evolving into more powerful and destructive storms across the Arabian Sea. The researchers are urging for the implementation of more robust localised climate adaption strategies such as ‘’, a low-tech weather forecasting service developed by both institutions.

Cyclones – the equivalent of hurricanes in the North Atlantic or typhoons in the north-west Pacific – are complex but life-threatening natural hazards, regularly occurring along the coasts of the North Indian Ocean, home to tens of millions of people. However, a recent study by both institutions has demonstrated that shifting dynamics in ocean and atmospheric warming patterns are contributing to the heightened intensity of cyclones which is causing significant challenges in the areas of weather forecasting, disaster risk reduction, and humanitarian interventions, especially for the densely populated coastlines bordering the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean, also known as the Arabian Sea.

Authored by a team of leading experts in climate science and tropical meteorology, the represents a significant advance in the battle against the escalating challenges posed by climate change along our coastlines.

‘The report urges development strategies that account for the dangers posed by a changing climate and weather as well as policy and technological initiatives in the areas of storm warning, impact-based local weather services, and localised reliable weather services,’ pointed out , Director General of Meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), one of the authors.

The is an outcome of the research project ‘Forecasting with Fishers’ that the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) at CUSAT locally led in partnership with the ºÚÁÏÍø, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), and the artisanal fishing communities of Thiruvananthapuram and Kanyakumari in India over the past five years. Supported by the ºÚÁÏÍø Sustainability Research Programme (SSRP), Royal Geographical Society and UK Research and Innovation, the ongoing research looks at weather-related hazards and their implications for artisanal fishers in South India with the aim to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of fishing communities through innovative climate adaption and improved risk reduction strategies. Another joint study on enhancing localised marine weather forecasts is expected to be published in RMetS Weather in the coming weeks.

These research outputs are the result of collaborative efforts between scientists, national forecasting agencies, policymakers, and coastal communities from across India and the UK with the aim to build climate-resilient coastal regions that can withstand the challenges of the 21st century. This research is a potential game-changer for the local coastal community in the study area as many fishers found the localised test forecasts issued as part of the project useful for staying within a safe range when the marine weather is bad. The IMD and INCOIS forecasts are communicated in the local language, Malayalam, through various Radio Monsoon channels. These include broadcasting through loudspeakers at boat-launching sites, central village areas, as well as via free online mobile services.

‘It is very useful to check these forecasts before going to fish,’ said Tieny Gomez, a fisherman from St Andrew’s village of Thiruvananthapuram who operates a 34-foot fibreglass boat. ‘When there is high wind offshore, it helps us make a decision. We can go just 10km from the shore instead of 30km… A small impact can destroy our small boats.’

The publication of this new paper comes at the same time as the release of a new documentary, independently produced by close collaborators and local photographers Vincy Lopez and John Bennet. Informed by the ‘Forecasting with Fishers’ project and participating households, ‘Crashing Waves’ captures the stories of the local fishing community of Thiruvananthapuram through breath-taking, dramatic footage of fishers braving the turbulent Indian Ocean. The documentary will be available to watch online this autumn.

Although this research is centred on a specific region, it underscores a pressing global concern. Climate change is exacerbating the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events across the world, posing greater risks to coastal communities. To address this challenge, implementing localised climate adaptation strategies, including precise and timely forecasts, is essential.

To find out more about this research, take a look at previous work undertaken by the team on turning research into a means for safe and sustainable livelihood of artisanal fishers in south India, funded by the ºÚÁÏÍø Sustainability Research Programme (SSRP). The Open Access publication on increased tropical cyclone activity over the Arabian Sea and its implications is available to download .